FINDING YOUR WAY AROUND THE MOBILE STATS COMPENDIUM:
Home: Full index of contents and highlights • Section A: Mobile subscribers; handset share • Section B: Mobile Web; 3G • Section C: Mobile marketing, advertising and messaging • Section D: Consumer mobile behavior • Section E: Mobile apps, app stores • Section F: Mobile payment, NFC, m-commerce, m-ticketing and m-coupons • Section G: Mobile financial services (MFS) and m-banking • Section H: VC investment in mobile.
SECTION A: Mobile subscribers; handset market share; mobile operators
1) Mobile subscribers worldwide • Mobile subscriptions v unique mobile users
2) The top 10 mobile markets (NEW): mobile and 3G subs for China • India • USA etc.
3) Mobile device shipments • Global smartphone penetration (NEW)
4) Smartphone shipments • Top five smartphone countries (NEW) • smartphone operating system market share
5) Smartphone market penetration (NEW).
6) Mobile tablets and e-Readers
7) Mobile phone security • Rise of mobile malware
8) Top mobile network operators • timescale for operators to run out of profit
• If you use any of the stats, please remember to source and link to both the analysts and to mobiThinking. Please do not republish more than 5 percent of the content without seeking permission.
• Thanks to all the analysts, associations and regulators that continue to send us their research. Please keep us updated: editor(at)mobiThinking.com.
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1) Mobile subscribers worldwide
At the end of 2011, there were 6 billion mobile subscriptions, estimates The International Telecommunication Union (2011). That is equivalent to 87 percent of the world population. And is a huge increase from 5.4 billion in 2010 and 4.7 billion mobile subscriptions in 2009.
• Mobile subscribers in the developed world has reached saturation point with at least one cell phone subscription per person. This means market growth is being driven by demand developing world, led by rapid mobile adoption in China and India, the world's most populous nations.
• At the end of 2011 there were 4.5 billion mobile subscriptions in the developing world (76 percent of global subscriptions). Mobile penetration in the developing world now is 79 percent, with Africa being the lowest region worldwide at 53 percent.
• Portio Research – in the excellent free Mobile Factbook 2012 predicts that mobile subscribers worldwide will reach 6.5 billion by the end of 2012, 6.9 billion by the end of 2013 and 8 billion by the end of 2016.
• Portio research estimates that Asia Pacific’s share of the mobile subscribers will rise from 50.7 percent in 2011 to 54.9 percent in 2016. By 2016 Africa and Middle East will overtake Europe as the second largest region for mobile subscribers Africa.
Key Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector in 2011
(all figures are estimates)
Global
Developed
nationsDeveloping
nationsAfrica
Arab
StatesAsia & Pacific
CIS
Europe
The Americas
Mobile cellular subscriptions
(millions)5,981
1,461
4,520
433
349
2,897
399
741
969
Per 100 people
86.7%
117.8%
78.8%
53.0%
96.7%
73.9%
143.0%
119.5%
103.3%
Fixed telephone lines
(millions) 1,159
494
665
12
35
511
74
242
268
Per 100 people
16.6%
39.8%
11.6%
1.4%
9.7%
13.0%
26.3%
39.1%
28.5%
Active mobile broadband subscriptions
(millions)1,186
701
484
31
48
421
42
336
286
Per 100 people
17.0%
56.5%
8.5%
3.8%
13.3%
10.7%
14.9%
54.1%
30.5%
Fixed broadband subscriptions
(millions)591
319
272
1
8
243
27
160
145
per 100 people
8.5%
25.7%
4.8%
0.2%
2.2%
6.2%
9.6%
25.8%
15.5%
Source: International Telecommunication Union (November 2011)
via: mobiThinking
• mobiThinking note: Mobile subscriptions outnumber fixed lines 5:1 (more so in developing nations); Mobile broadband outnumbers fixed broadband 2:1. With stats like this, it is easy to see why the experts predict that mobile Web usage will overtake PC-based Web usage. This will happen more quickly in developing nations – in China and other countries it already has –where fixed Web penetration remains low. In developed nations, this will happen more slowly. IDC believes that mobile Web usage will not overtake PC Web usage in the US until 2015. Regardless of the timescale, this inevitability makes your mobile Web strategy more important than your PC Web strategy in the long term.
• See Section B: for all the stats on Mobile Web; 3G etc
1b) Mobile subscriptions v unique mobile users
Please note that mobile subscriptions refers to the number of SIM cards being used in each country, not the number of people using a mobile device. Some people have two mobile accounts on the go at a one time, possibly in two devices, possibly in a single dual-SIM device (which are becoming increasingly common in the developing world and are forecast by Strategy Analytics to reach 20 percent of handsets by 2016).
• Wireless Intelligence (October 2012) estimates that there are 6.6 billion total connections in 2012 globally, excluding M2M. Of these it believes 10 percent are inactive, bringing the total down to 5.9 billion. Estimating that consumers use on average 1.85 SIM cards each, Wireless Intelligence concludes that unique mobile users worldwide currently stands at 3.2 billion. That means unique subscriber penetration is just 45 percent in 2012.
• Wireless Intelligence forecasts that unique mobile users will grow to 4 billion in five years.
• Ericsson (November 2012) believes global mobile penetration reached 91 percent in Q3 2012 and mobile subscriptions now total around 6.4 billion. However, the actual number of subscribers is around 4.3 billion, since many people have several subscriptions e.g. work handset, home handset, PC dongle and/or tablet. Also operators are slow to remove inactive accounts from their databases. (This is why you commonly see countries with mobile penetration above 100 percent). It should also be noted that in some developing regions, it is common for several people to share one subscription.
• Ericsson forecasts that mobile subscriptions will reach 6.6 billion at the end of 2012 and 9.3 billion in 2018.
• Ericsson forecasts that global mobile broadband subscriptions reach 1.5 billion at the end of 2012, and 6.5 billion in 2018.
• See the 100 million club for more analysis.
2) Top mobile markets: The 100 million club
There are 10 countries in the world with over 100 million mobile subscriptions, ranging from China with over a billion to Nigeria which passed the 100 million mark in August 2012. There are several countries such as Bangladesh and Mexico knocking at the door.
• The top 10 countries account for more than 55 percent of the world’s total mobile subscriptions.
• 30 percent of the world’s mobile users live in India and China. Subscriber numbers in either country dwarf the number of subscribers in third place USA.
Country
Mobile subscriptions
in millionsPopulation
in millions
(source: World bank)% of population
3G/4G subscriptions
in millions% of population
Sources
(subs; 3G subs)Last update
World
5,981
6,973.7
85.8%
1,593.9
23%
ITU
Informa WCISEnd 2011
Dec 2012
1
China
1,091.9
1,344.1
81.2%
212
15.8%
China Mobile;
China Unicom;
China TelecomNov 2012
2
India
Active: 699; total: 906.6
1241
73.1%
70.6
6%
TRAI
Informa WCIS
September 2012
Dec 2012
3
United States
321.7
311.6
103.3%
256.0
81%
CTIA
Informa WCISJune 2012
Dec 2012
4
Indonesia
260
242.3
107.3%
47.6
19%
BuddeComm
Informa WCISMay 2012
Dec 2012
5
Brazil
259.3
196.7
131.8%
65.5
33.3%
Anatel/Teleco
Anatel/TelecoOct 2012
6
Russia
227.1
141.9
160%
27.0
19%
Wireless Intelligence
Informa WCISJune 2012
Dec 2012
7
Japan
128.4
127.8
100.5%
104.4
(Mobile Internet subs)81.7%
TCA
TCAOctober 2012
8
Pakistan
120.5
176.7
68.6%
N/A
N/A
PTA
Sept 2012
9
Germany
114.2
81.7
139.7%
53.2
65%
Bundesnetzagentur
Informa WCISQ3 2012
Dec 2012
10
Nigeria
Active: 106.9; total: 143
162.5
65.8%
10.5
6%
NCC
Informa WCIS
Sept 2012
Dec 2012
Note: Informa 3G stats are forecasted estimates for Dec 2012.
Data compiled by: mobiThinking
• See the 100 million club for more analysis.
• See mobiThinking’s guides to mobile in: Nigeria • Brazil • Japan • Germany • USA • India •
2b) Top mobile markets: China mobile subscribers by operator
Mobile subscribers in China by operator October 2012
Operator
Subscribers
3G users
China Mobile
703.5 million
79.3 million
China Unicom
232.9 million
70.0 million
China Telecom
155.5 million
62.7 million
Total
1,091.9 million
212 million
Sources: China Mobile; China Unicom; China Telecom
via: mobiThinking
Further reading:
• China: 1 billion mobile subscribers, 400 million mobile Web users and No1 smartphone market
• Mobile Web overtakes PC Web in China
• The dos and don’ts of building and marketing your mobile site in China
“We had more than 425 million mobile monthly active users in December 2011. In 2011, mobile usage of Facebook increased in markets around the world, including major developed markets such as the United States where smartphone penetration grew rapidly… Improving our mobile products and increasing mobile usage of Facebook are key company priorities that we believe are critical to help us maintain and grow our user base and engagement over the long term. We expect consumers around the world will continue to increase the amount of time they spend and the information they share and consume through mobile devices.” – Facebook IPO statement (February, 2012).
• How will Facebook make money from all its mobile visitors? See: Section C: for all the stats on mobile marketing, advertising and messaging
Mobile device shipments
Today feature phones (non smartphones) outsell smartphones; and PCs and portable PCs (notebooks/laptops) both outsell tablets. In the future that is expected to change.
• What is and what isn’t a mobile, smart or connected device and which categories may or may not compete is a matter of conjecture.
• With the amount of publicity that smartphones receive companies might be forgiven for thinking that everyone has one. They majority of people don’t, and won’t for some time yet. Today feature phones still outsell smartphones, according to Gartner (February 2013) and Canalys (January 2013). Both analysts predict that marginally more smartphones will be sold in 2013 than feature phones. Canalys believes that by 2016 smartphones will outsell feature phones by a considerable margin.
• The tablet is oft touted as a replacement for the desktop or portable PC, but today both continue to outsell tablets. But Canalys (January 2013) predicts that tablets could outsell the portable PC in 2014.
Worldwide mobile device shipments in 2012 and 2016 (millions of units), according to Canalys
Smart connected device market by product category (shipments in millions), according to IDC
Type of device
2012 shipments
2016 shipments
2012-16 Growth
Type of device
2012 shipments
2012 market share
Basic phone
122.0
58.0
-17.0%
Smartphone
722.4m
60.1%
Feature phone
770.8
660.9
-3.8%
Tablet
128.3m
10.7%
Smartphone
694.8
1,342.5
17.9%
Portable PC
202m
16.8%
Tablet
114.6
383.5
35.3%
Desktop PC
148.4
12.4%
Notebook
215.7
169.1
-5.9%
Netbook
18.3
0.3
-65.4%
Total
1,936.2
2,614.2
7.8%
Total
1201.1m
100.0%
Source: © Canalys (Feb 2013)
Source: © IDC (Feb 2013)
Via: © mobiThinking
3) Mobile phone shipments
3a) There were 1.7 billion mobile phones sold in 2012, which was similar to the number sold in 2011.
• IDC (January 2013): 1.736 billion handsets were sold in 2012, up 1.2 percent compared with 2011.
• Gartner (February 2013): 1.746 billion handsets were sold in 2012, down 1.7 percent from 2011.
• Strategy Analytics (January 2013): 1.575 billion handsets were sold in 2012, up 1.9 percent compared with 2011.
• These figures include feature phones (around 59 percent of handsets sold in 2012) and smartphones (31-32 percent of handsets sold in 2011). Smartphone sales are broken out below.
• Gartner (February 2013): predicts mobile device sales will grow to reach 1.9 billion units in 2013. Smartphone sales are expected to hit 1 billion units in 2013, which means that for the first time smartphones will outsell feature phones.
• The star performer is Samsung, which accounted for more than 20-24 percent of all handsets sold in 2012 and more than 30 percent of smartphones. See: Why Samsung is number one handset/smartphone vendor: why your mobile strategy should emulate Samsung
Top ten mobile phone manufacturers in 2012 (millions of units)according to Gartner
Top five mobile phone vendors, shipments, and market share in 2012 (millions of units), according to IDC
Vendor
2012
sales2012
market share2011
sales2011
market share
Vendor
2012
sales2012
market share2011
sales2011
market share
Samsung
384.6
22.0%
315.1
17.7%
Samsung
406.0
23.7%
330.9
19.3%
Nokia
333.9
19.1%
422.5
23.8%
Nokia
335.6
19.6%
416.9
24.3%
Apple
130.1
7.5%
89.3
5.0
Apple
135.9
7.8%
93.1
5.4%
ZTE
67.3
3.9%
56.9
3.2%
ZTE
65.0
3.7%
69.5
4.1%
LG
58
3.3%
86.4
4.9%
LG
55.9
3.2%
88.1
5.1%
Huawei
47.3
2.7%
40.7
2.3%
TCL
37.2
2.1%
34
1.9%
BlackBerry (RIM)
34.2
2%
51.5
2.9%
Motorola
33.9
1.9%
40.3
2.3%
HTC
32.1
1.8%
43.3
2.4%
Others
587.4
33.6%
595.9
33.6%
Others
737.5
42.6%
716.8
41.8%
Total
1,746.2
100.0%
1,775.7
100%
Total
1735.9
100.0%
1715.3
100.0%
Source: © Gartner (Feb 2013)
Source: © IDC (Jan 2013)
Via: © mobiThinking
• mobiThinking note: Mobile phone sales stats are often confused with handset market penetration. The breakdown of handsets sold in a given period is not a very accurate indication of what handsets people are actually using, as most people retain the same handset for 18 months, 24 months (depending on their contract) or longer. That’s why you won’t find quarterly sales stats in the Mobile stats compendium – they can be very misleading. Yearly sales give a better indication of market penetration, but looking at sales over a two or even three year period will provide a more accurate picture.
3b) Mobile device market penetration
In the absence of publicly available research based on sales of handsets (analysts keep this data for their paying customers) the best indication of mobile device market penetration is research based on surveys of consumers. There are no global figures – surveys are only conducted in a few of the most developed mobile markets. While survey data is useful, it should be noted that these figures are based on the responses of a few thousand people in markets of 30-330 million mobile subscribers, and thus should only be considered as estimates of market penetration.
• ComScore (Q4 2011): The top device manufacturer by market penetration in Western Europe is Nokia, in the US is Samsung and in Japan is Sharp.
• ComScore (Q4 2011) estimates that in UK and Spain smartphones now outnumber feature phones (which is remarkable considering that smartphones were 31-32 percent of handsets sold in 2011).
• Smartphone market penetration are broken out by manufacturer and operating system below.
• The estimates below are based surveys conducted ComScore in Q4 2011.
Top mobile manufacturers, by market penetration, Q4 2011, according to ComScore
USA
Canada
Japan
Germany
UK
France
Spain
Italy
1
Samsung 25.3%
Samsung 24.3%
Sharp 24.4%
Nokia 29.1%
Nokia 24.4%
Samsung 37.9%
Nokia 40.7%
Nokia 43.8%
2
LG 20.0%
LG 18.8%
Panasonic 13.6%
Samsung 24.3%
Samsung 19.9%
Nokia 18.5%
Samsung 20.4%
Samsung 24.2%
3
Motorola 13.3%
RIM 14.8%
Fujitsu 11.5%
Sony Eric 13.5%
Apple 13.6%
Apple 10.1%
Sony Eric 8.4%
LG 7.2%
Proportion of subscribers with a smartphone, Q4 2011, according to ComScore
41.8%
N/A
17%
37.0%
51.3%
40.0%
51.0%
43.9%
Source: ComScore (February 2012)
Survey group: 24,000
via: mobiThinking
"Mobile handsets are in an excellent position to become the primary digital channel for providers of banking and related financial services in emerging markets” – Berg Insight.
• See Section F: for all the stats and research on mobile payment, NFC, m-commerce, m-ticketing and m-coupons; and Section G: for all the stats and research on mobile financial services (MFS) and m-banking.
4a) Smartphone shipments by manufacturer
Smartphone sales showed strong growth worldwide in 2012
• IDC (January 2013): Total shipments in 2012 were 712.6 million units up 44.1 percent from 2011. This makes smartphones 41.1 percent of all handsets shipped.
• Strategy Analytics (February 2013): Total shipments in 2012 were 700.1 million units up 42.7 percent from 2011. This makes smartphones 44.5 percent of all handsets shipped.
• Gartner (February 2013): predicts that there will be close to 1 billion smartphones sold in 2013, which will mean that smartphones will outsell feature phones for the first time.
• Canalys (January 2013): predicts that 837 million smartphones will be sold worldwide in 2013. It also expects smartphone sales to surpass feature phones sales. 29 percent of smartphones sold will be sold in China. • For more on the world’s largest smartphone market, see Section 4b, below.
Top five smartphone vendors, shipments, and market share in 2012 (millions of units), according to IDC
Top three smartphone manufacturers in 2012 (millions of units), according to Strategy Analytics
Vendor
2012
sales2012
market share2011
sales2011
market share
Vendor
2012
sales2012
market share2011
sales2011
market share
Samsung
215.8
30.3%
94.2
19.0%
Samsung
213.0
30.4%
97.4
19.9%
Apple
135.9
19.1%
93.1
18.8%
Apple
135.8
19.4%
93.0
19.0%
Nokia
35.1
4.9%
77.3
15.6%
Nokia
35.0
5.0%
77.3
15.8%
HTC
32.6
4.6%
43.6
8.8%
BlackBerry (RIM)
32.5
4.6%
51.1
10.3%
Others
260.7
36.5%
135.3
27.5%
Others
316.3
45.2%
222.8
45.4%
Total
712.6
100.0%
494.6
100.0%
Total
700.1
100.0%
490.5
100.0%
Source: © IDC (Jan 2013)
Source: © Strategy Analytics (Jan 2013)
Via: © mobiThinking
• mobiThinking reality check on smartphones:
The media tends to overegg the importance of smartphones and Apple in particular. Before media hype lulls you into focusing your marketing/development budget on smartphones or the Apple platform exclusively, consider this:
• 55-59 percent of handsets sold globally in 2012 were not smartphones, they were feature phones; 92 percent of all phones sold were not Apple.
• Beware of the unpredictability of the smartphone market – just two years ago in 2010, Nokia and RIM were the top two smartphone vendors sharing 50 percent of the smartphone market (see IDC’s stats, for example), in 2012 they accounted for 10 percent. In 2012, Samsung and Apple shared 50 percent of the market – but in 2014, will they still be sitting pretty? Does your mobile strategy depend on their continued dominance, or do you follow a platform-agnostic strategy i.e. mobile Web and mobile messaging?
• Smartphone sales is not the same as market penetration. Market penetration of smartphones is lower. There were 6 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide at the end of 2011 (Source: ITU). It is estimated that there are currently *only* 1 billion smartphones in use worldwide (source: Strategy Analytics October, 2012). That means only 16.7 percent of mobile subscriptions smartphones. Gartner (February 2013) forecasts that 1 billion smartphones will be sold in 2013 – even if none of these replace the previous billion (which of course they will) then smartphones would still only be one-third of mobile subscriptions. Make sure your mobile strategy includes the non-smartphone-owning majority.
• See smartphone penetration below.
4b) Top markets for smartphone sales
China is now the top market for smartphone sales, but growth is expected to be strongest in India, Indonesia, Russia and Brazil.
• China overtook the US as the largest smartphone market in Q3 2011, according to Strategy Analytics (November 2011) or Q1 2012, according to Canalys (May 2012), and has not looked back since.
• IDC (August 2012) estimates that China’s share of the global smartphone market in 2012 was 26.5 percent.
• Canalys (January 2013): predicts that 240 million smartphones will be sold in China in 2013. That is 29 percent of the 837 million smartphones Canalys expects to be sold in 2013. It is almost double the 125 million smartphones Canalys forecasts will be sold in the US in 2013.
• IDC believes the Chinese market is being driven by sub-US$200 Android devices and expects prices to fall below $100 as competition, particularly from domestic vendors, intensifies. Canalys also believes that competitively priced handsets from local vendors will do best in China’s huge smartphone market.
• Brazil, Russia, India, China and Indonesia, collectively known as the BRICI economies are expected by IDC and Canalys to be the fast-growth smartphone markets over the next few years, as smartphone growth stagnates in developed economies (such the US and UK). IDC expects India and Brazil to catch up and overtake the UK (currently the world’s third largest smartphone market) by 2016.
• The IDC chart below does not include sales, but knowing from IDC’s year-end figures that total smartphone shipments in 2012 were 712.6 (which was in line with IDC’s expectations), you can extrapolate sales forecasts for each country in 2012 – China: 190.1 million; USA: 127.7 million; UK: 32.3 million; India: 17.9 million; Brazil: 16.5 million; rest of world: 332.9 million. N.B. The Canalys chart is not the top five, but focused on the fast-growing BRICI economies – we have included the US for comparison.
Top five markets by share of global smartphone sales 2011, 2012, and 2016 according to IDC
Smartphone sales forecasts for BRICI economies compared with US according to Canalys.
Country
2011
market share2012
market share2016
market shareGrowth
2011-16
Country
2013
shipments2013
market share
2012-13
growth
China
18.3%
26.5%
23.0%
26.2%
China
239.8m
28.7%
29.1
USA
21.3%
17.8%
14.5%
11.6%
USA
125m
14.9%
N/A
India
2.2%
2.5%
8.5%
57.5%
India
26.5m
3.2%
61.4%
Brazil
1.8%
2.3%
4.4%
44.0%
Russia
18.8
2.3%
30.7%
United Kingdom
5.3%
4.5%
3.6%
11.5%
Brazil
17.2
2.1%
40.0%
Rest of World
51.1%
46.4%
46.0%
18.1%
Indonesia
15.7m
1.9%
51.7%
Grand total
837.0m
100%
22.5%
Source: © IDC (Aug 2012)
Source: © Canalys (January 2013)
Via: © mobiThinking
4c) Smartphone shipments by operating system market share
Android is the dominant operating system for new smartphones sold in 2012.
• IDC (February 2013): 68.8 percent of smartphones shipped in 2012, shipped with Google’s free Android OS. That is more than three times the number shipped with Apple’s iOS (18.8 percent) and dwarfs BlackBerry OS (4.5 percent) and Nokia’s Symbian (3.3 percent).
• In 2016, IDC (Dec 2012) predicts that market shares will look pretty similar to 2012, except for the rapid rise of Windows to take 11.4 percent of the market.
• IDC does not expect the new Linux-based, Web friendly smartphone operating systems including Tizen (Samsung, Intel etc), Firefox (Mozilla) and SailFish (Jolla) to make significant inroads into the market. Other analysts reserve judgment.
• Canalys (February 2013): Android powered 68 percent of smartphones sold in 2012. Canalys predicts that Android will peak in 2013 with 71 percent, declining to 66 percent in 2016.
Global smartphone operating system share in 2012 and 2016, according to IDC
Global smartphone operating system share in 2012, 2013 and 2016, according to Canalys
Operating System
2012 sales (millions)
2012 market share
2016 market share
2012-16 Growth
Operating System
2012 market share
2013 market share
2016 market share
Android
497.1m
68.8%
63.8%
16.3%
Android
68%
71%
66%
iOS
135.9m
18.8%
19.1%
18.8
iOS
20%
N/A
N/A
BlackBerry OS
32.5m
4.5%
4.1%
14.6%
BlackBerry OS
5%
N/A
N/A
Symbian
23.9m
3.3%
N/A
N/A
Windows Phone
17.9m
2.5%
11.4%
71.3
Linux
N/A
2.0%
1.5%
10.5%
Others
15.1m
2.1%
0.1%
N/A>
Total
722.4m
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: © IDC (Feb 2013); IDC (Dec 2012)
Source: © Canalys (Feb 2013)
Via: © mobiThinking
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5) Smartphone market penetration
The number of smartphones in use worldwide has now broken the 1 billion mark. With the ITU, estimating global mobile subscriptions at 6 billion at the end of 2011, mobiThinking calculates that global smartphone penetration is now 16.7 percent.
• Strategy Analytics (October, 2012) calculates that at the end of Q3, 2012 the number of smartphones in use worldwide reached 1.038 billion units. This time last year there were 708 million smartphones in use worldwide. That’s 46.6 percent growth rate in a year. But growth hasn’t always been that strong.
• It has taken 16 years for smartphone penetration to reach 1 billion. The first major smartphone is commonly accepted to be the Nokia Communicator in 1996 - 11 years before Apple’s iPhone. But Strategy Analytics believes that it will only take three years to achieve the next billion.
• Android and Apple iOS combined will account for the significant majority of the global smartphone installed base in 2012. The former top smartphone operating system Symbian continues to decline, following Nokia’s shocking decision to dump the OS in favor of Microsoft in early 2011.
• Ericsson (November 2012) forecasts smartphone subscriptions worldwide will be 1.1 billion by the end of 2012 growing to 3.3 billion in 2018. Over that time the majority of mobile subscriptions will be for feature phones. Feature phones (and inactive) subscriptions will remain at around 5 billion in the coming years.
5b) Smartphone market penetration by manufacturer and operating system
Data on smartphone penetration by country, by manufacturer or operating system is not freely available from research analysts (they save this for their paying customers). However data from surveys conducted by ComScore suggest that in some developed markets smartphone penetration in some countries is much higher than the global average:
• ComScore (Q4 2011): In Western Europe smartphone penetration is 44.0 percent. In the US smartphone penetration is 41.8 percent. In the Japan smartphone penetration is 17 percent. The Android operating system leads in Western Europe (31.2 percent), just ahead of Nokia’s Symbian, US (47 percent) and Japan (60.5 percent), considerably ahead of Apple’s iOS in all three markets.
• The estimates below are based surveys conducted ComScore in Q4 2011.
Smartphone market penetration by manufacturer and by operating system, Q4 2011, according to ComScore
USA
Canada
Japan
Germany
UK
France
Spain
Italy
Proportion of subscribers with a smartphone, Q4 2011
41.8%
N/A
17%
37.0%
51.3%
40.0%
51.0%
43.9%
Top smartphone manufacturers, by market penetration, Q4 2011
1
Apple 29.6%
RIM 32.6%
Apple 33.6%
Nokia 25.1%
Apple 26.4%
Samsung 27.3%
Nokia 37.2%
Nokia 51.7%
2
RIM 16.0%
Apple 31.2%
Sharp 27.7%
Apple 22.2%
HTC 18.5%
Apple 25.2%
Samsung 17.9%
Apple 15.8%
3
HTC 14.6%
Samsung 11.0%
Sony Eric 12.8%
Samsung 20.3%
RIM 18.3%
Nokia 15.8%
Apple 11.5%
Samsung 14.1%
Smartphone operating system market share, December 2011
1
Android 47%
RIM 32.6%
Android 60.5%
Android 33.6%
Android 36.6%
Android 35.4%
Symbian 40.4%
Symbian 52.8%
2
IOS 30%
IOS 31.2%
IOS 33.6%
Symbian 28.4%
IOS 26.4
IOS 25.2%
Android 32.1%
Android 17.9%
3
RIM 16%
Android 27.8%
Microsoft 5.4%
IOS 22.2%
Symbian 14.5%
Symbian 17.0%
IOS 11.5%
IOS 15.8%
Source: ComScore (February 2012)
Survey group: 24,000
via: mobiThinking
• mobiThinking note: While survey data is useful, it should be noted that these figures are based on the responses of a few thousand people in markets of 30-330 million mobile subscribers, and thus should only be considered as estimates of market penetration.
• mobiThinking note: The most remarkable statistic here (if correct) is the relatively low penetration of smartphones in Japan, a market with some of the highest mobile Web usage in the world. This shatters the misconception that you need a smartphone to access the mobile Web. Companies ignore feature phone users at their peril.
• See Section B: for all the stats on mobile Web, 3G etc.
• mobiThinking note: Smartphone penetration in the UK and Spain seems remarkably high, considering that smartphones were only 35 percent of handsets sold globally in 2011 and considerably less in 2010.
“The various use cases for consumers will depend on where they are, what time of day and what day of the week. Currently we have television with over 110 million folks. We have Weather.com on the Web which is approaching 70 million and the breakdown specific for mobile apps is fairly even between iOS and Android devices with over 20 million for each of those and then we have 33 million unique folks on the mobile Web.” Scott Jensen, VP, Weather Channel (November 2011) in a video interview with mobiThinking.
• Find out how companies are using mobile to engage their customers in this series of video interviews with Russell Wallach, Live Nation Network • Stephen Gates, Starwood Hotels • Scott Jensen, Weather Channel • Matt Martin, Sam’s Club • Amy Gale, Autotrader Mobile
6) Mobile tablets and e-Readers
It is debatable whether the tablet is any more a mobile device than a laptop with a 3G wireless connection, but there has been a surprising amount of interest in this relatively nascent format.
• IDC (December 2012) predicts that 122.3 million tablets will be sold in 2012, rising to 172.4 million units in 2013 and 282.7 million units in 2016. Apple leads the pack. In 2012 iOS will control 53.8 percent of the tablet market, Android 42.7 percent and Windows 2.9 percent. By 2016, Windows will have made significant gains: iOS share will be 49.7 percent, Android 39.7 percent and Windows 10.3 percent.
IDC expects 2012 eReader shipments to top out at 19.9 million units.
• mobiThinking note: Before you invest a considerable chunk of your mobile budget in tablet computers, consider this: in 2011 global mobile handset sales outnumbered tablet sales by 22:1. Tablets sold: 68 million… mobile handsets sold: 1.5 billion.
7) Mobile phone security and the rise of mobile malware
Only a fraction of smartphones and tablets are protected by security software, despite a rise in the amount of malware targeted at mobile devices.
Estimates for growth of mobile malware (includes viruses, worms and malicious software used by hackers, such as code inserted into compromised mobile apps) vary greatly, but all expects warn that it is growing very fast.
• BullGuard identified a staggering 2,500 different types of mobile malware in 2010.
• IBM X-Force named 2011 the year of the security breach, predicting that “exploits targeting vulnerabilities that affect mobile operating systems will more than double from 2010”.
Yet most smartphones and tablets have little security protection:
• Canalys (October 2011): Only 4 percent of smartphones and tablet computers shipped in 2010 had some form of mobile security downloaded and installed.
• Juniper Research (August 2011): Less than 1 in 20 smartphones and tablets have third-party security software installed in them, despite a steady increase in threats.
This is expected to change, let by sales to business:
• Canalys: US $759.8 million will be spent on security in 2011 alone, growing at 44 percent annually to be worth US $3 billion in 2015.
• Juniper: By 2016, 277 million mobile devices will have some kind of protection installed, costing mobile users a collective US$3.6 billion. 69 percent of this investment will be made by corporations concerned about corporate data is stored on mobile devices.
Further reading:
• The insider’s guide to mobile security
• Mobile security – implications for your business
• Strategies for securing the enterprise in a BYOD world
8) Largest mobile network operators
7a) China Mobile is the largest mobile operator in the world by subscribers and revenues according to Portio Research (2011).
• For this research Portio looked at the mobile operator groups and calculated the proportional number of subscribers across the whole group, taking into account that some operators only had part shares in some of their subsidiaries. Notably, while groups such as Vodafone, America Movil and Telefonica span many operators in many countries, China Mobile’s subscribers are only in China. And since these stats were taken in 2010, it has added 78 million subscribers to its base – see the April 2012 stats above.
Top ten operator groups by subscribers and revenues – worldwide
Rank
Operator group
(HQ location)Proportionate subscribers
(millions, 2010)
Operator group
Revenue from Mobile
Operations
(In US$ millions, 2010)
1
China Mobile (China)
594.2m
China Mobile
$71,571.6m
2
Vodafone Group (UK)
338.9m
Verizon (US)
$63,407.0m
3
America Movil (Mexico)
224.4m
Vodafone Group
$60,779.7m
4
Telefonica (Spain)
216.9m
AT&T
$58,500.0m
5
Bharti Airtel (India)
199.2m
Telefonica
$52,729.1m
6
China Unicom (China)
169.3m
NTT DOCOMO (Japan)
$48,462.5m
7
AT&T (US)
148.8m
Deutsche Telekom
$45,694.5m
8
SingTel (Singapore)
133.9m
America Movil
$29,940.4m
9
France Telecom (France)
129.5m
France Telecom
$29,718.0m
10
Reliance Communications (India)
125.7m
Sprint Nextel
$28,597.0m
Source: Portio Research (2011)
via: mobiThinking
mobiThinking note on the Top fives: the most interesting thing is the predominance of Asian mobile operators coming top in both the customer loyalty and data revenues sections. Perhaps this represents different and longer-term priorities than the European networks that come top in average revenue per user. (Note: the analysis in this report is based on 2008 revenues).
7b) Mobile operators in developed countries could run out of profit in the next two to four years if they do not change their business models, according to research by Tellabs/Analysys Mason (February 2011). This assumes current trends in demand for data, revenues and costs associated with investing in high speed data networks.
When mobile operators in developed economies are expected to run out of profit
(if expenditure, demand and revenue trends remain the same)
Region
Worst case scenario
median
Best case scenario
North America
Q1, 2013
Q4, 2013
Q2, 2014
Developed Asia Pacific
Q3, 2013
Q3, 2014
Q1, 2015
Western Europe
Q1, 2014
Q1, 2015
Q2, 2015
Source: Tellabs/ Analysys Mason (February 2011)
via: mobiThinking
FINDING YOUR WAY AROUND THE MOBILE STATS COMPENDIUM:
Home: Full index of contents and highlights • Section A: Mobile subscribers; handset share • Section B: Mobile Web; 3G • Section C: Mobile marketing, advertising and messaging • Section D: Consumer mobile behavior • Section E: Mobile apps, app stores • Section F: Mobile payment, NFC, m-commerce, m-ticketing and m-coupons • Section G: Mobile financial services (MFS) and m-banking • Section H: VC investment in mobile.
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• Websites must be mobile-friendly to comply with FTC’s new digital advertising guidelines
• The insiders' guides to world’s greatest mobile markets • New country guide: Sweden
• Guide to mobile industry awards • Check out the video case studies: Global Mobile Awards • WSA Mobile •
• Mobile/smartphone sales 2012: the big picture
• Guide to mobile ad networks • Latest ad network profiles: Hands; • Twinpine •
• Guide to mobile agencies • Latest agency profiles: Pontomobi • The Hyperfactory •
• Guide to mobile industry awards • Check out the video case studies: Emmas • WSA Mobile •
• Mobile events 2013 • best conferences, great discounts and free tickets •
• The big compendium of global mobile stats
• Most popular content on mobiThinking in 2012
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